tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post4187197107185107932..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: Adam Dunn's offensive valueMark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-66622883904584205812010-10-08T16:36:23.596-04:002010-10-08T16:36:23.596-04:00Please sign Adam Dunn, otherwise my AD bobblehead ...Please sign Adam Dunn, otherwise my AD bobblehead will crash in value.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-36221651714225158052010-09-30T13:49:57.846-04:002010-09-30T13:49:57.846-04:00Sure, Dunn has a lot of RBIs, but you have to ask ...Sure, Dunn has a lot of RBIs, but you have to ask how many ADDITIONAL RBIs he's contributing than his replacement would. In his spot in the order, he's getting more chances than anyone. If you had batted Willingham cleanup, he probably would have gotten about 80% of Dunn's total.Greg Finleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06005875920306936097noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-89695187420263672242010-09-29T18:13:55.056-04:002010-09-29T18:13:55.056-04:00Of course you have to draw the line somewhere. I p...Of course you have to draw the line somewhere. I probably wouldn't go to four years and $56 million guaranteed. The fourth guaranteed year would scare me as a GM/owner. But if that happens, you better have a Plan B in place that you're reasonably confident will work out.Mark Zuckermanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-10137664592748100712010-09-29T17:55:32.622-04:002010-09-29T17:55:32.622-04:00Constant Reader again Mark. If someone else offer...Constant Reader again Mark. If someone else offers Dunn a fourth year guaranteed and at $56M and he goes, will you cut the Lerner's some slack? My point is that no one anywhere appears to be arguing for letting Dunn go. You've made a convincing case that he is worth keeping. But that worth has its limits. No one argues the Nats should have made the offer to Soriano that the Cubs did. If someone throws crazy money at Dunn, we'll miss him.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-16104475264278287432010-09-29T17:46:07.431-04:002010-09-29T17:46:07.431-04:00Anonymous said...
Hey Mark, mind if a constant rea...<i>Anonymous said...<br />Hey Mark, mind if a constant reader flips a question back to you? Imagine for a moment your last name is Lerner instead of Zuckerman (you can keep your first name). How many years and how many dollars would you go to re-sign Dunn? Where do YOU draw the line?</i><br /><br />Well, my name isn't Lerner, so it's of course all hypothetical. It always easier to spend someone else's money. But if it's me, I think I'd go three years and $42 million, with a club option for a fourth year. And I think Dunn would take that.Mark Zuckermanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-71790696505796593582010-09-29T17:38:35.865-04:002010-09-29T17:38:35.865-04:00"There's no easy way to calculate the def..."There's no easy way to calculate the defensive question, not without going back and analyzing every defensive play Dunn was involved in over the the last 158 games."<br /><br />Actually, you wouldn't need to analyze every play, just every game. I'm too lazy to go back through all those gamers, but maybe next year, assuming you're back (and if you are, count me in again), a Player/Goat of the Game stat--as many as warranted--would be instructive.<br /><br />Subjective, sure, but I'll take an *educated* subjectivity. Just your (or our collective) wisdom on "He won, or cost them, this game--y/n."Sec3MySofanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-85692284660183138452010-09-29T17:19:43.627-04:002010-09-29T17:19:43.627-04:00too. not tool. typo. LOLtoo. not tool. typo. LOLAnother_Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-50431351120866825212010-09-29T17:18:35.443-04:002010-09-29T17:18:35.443-04:00Did you guys hear something? The feeling here is ...Did you guys hear something? The feeling here is that Dunn is gone?<br /><br />@JaneB - Right on, regarding AD, and MZ tool.Another_Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-41928044411384818962010-09-29T16:11:46.310-04:002010-09-29T16:11:46.310-04:00Most of the year there were three Nats a fan would...Most of the year there were three Nats a fan would concentrate on when he came to the plate, Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham. The rest might hit a single here and there but you were not giving them undivided attention. For most of the season, Desmond, Kennedy/Espinosa, the catcher, and the rest of the outfield a hit was a pleasant surprise. <br />Last night's game only got exciting if Dunn came up. I was talking to the people around me when everyone else was batting because you really don't expect a bunch of .250 hitters with no power to do very much.<br />If Dunn gone next year, it will make it that much harder to want to be at the ballpark.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-31576895418106094462010-09-29T16:09:48.486-04:002010-09-29T16:09:48.486-04:00I think that there is a sabre stat that tries to m...I think that there is a sabre stat that tries to measure something similar, Mark. It is WPA (win probability added), which is the difference in win expectancy between the start of a play and the end of a play. I think the way it works is that they calculate the probability of a team winning a game before an at bat - let's say it is 6-5 Phillies in the 8th, and the Nats may have a 15% chance of winning according to their formula. Dunn then knocks in 2 runs, and their chances go to 65% (I am just making up these % numbers for illustration purposes). Dunn would get credit for the increase in the Nats win probability (they assign the negative value to the pitcher, I think). Anyway, they calculate that for every at bat all season (most ABs don't move the needle as much as my hypothetical, obviously). <br /><br />Dunn doesn't score quite as high as your RBI model, but he is still pretty darn good - 17th in all of baseball. Zim, by the way, is 14th and I think that I am right that this stat doesn't take defense into account (although I may not be).Wallyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01557557989122256161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-36810924181347580282010-09-29T16:08:44.894-04:002010-09-29T16:08:44.894-04:00Hey Mark, mind if a constant reader flips a questi...Hey Mark, mind if a constant reader flips a question back to you? Imagine for a moment your last name is Lerner instead of Zuckerman (you can keep your first name). How many years and how many dollars would you go to re-sign Dunn? Where do YOU draw the line?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-15159118727654388782010-09-29T15:56:22.642-04:002010-09-29T15:56:22.642-04:00DuPuy, rather. Dang.DuPuy, rather. Dang.natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-65318324049616503222010-09-29T15:53:31.210-04:002010-09-29T15:53:31.210-04:00Speaking of whom, did anybody else find interestin...Speaking of whom, did anybody else find interesting the announcement that MLB COO and Selig aide Bob DePuy will retire at the end of October? hmmm...<br /><br />---<br /><br />Considering that as of Monday the Nats won't be on the hook for Stan Kasten's salary (which I'd bet isn't too small), you'd think they'd have some room to make Dunn a nice offer.natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-2962808116440824552010-09-29T15:43:01.034-04:002010-09-29T15:43:01.034-04:00"I am in favor of signing Dunn but to those w..."I am in favor of signing Dunn but to those who claim that there are no other options; let's not get crazy. I guarantee you that there are 1st basemen out there ready to make the jump to the majors who can be obtained in a trade. There are other Justin Smoaks out there and it's Rizzo's job to find an appropriate trading partner and make a deal work.<br /><br />Signing $15 mil free agents is not the only answer; another avenue would be to downgrade the position some but seriously upgrade at another position; it's all about allocation of resources."<br /><br />The problem with getting a guy like Smoak or Brett Wallace is you have to give up something to get them. Now while I agree there might be other options out there who could the Nats trade? Dunn is no longer an option, and Willingham's trade value took a big hit with the injury and now only being under contract for a year. If we trade a Desmond or Espinosa our team would take a serious hit. <br /><br />Yeah we could package a couple of minor leaguers together, but we still won't get a top guy like Smoak and I still can't believe the Jays only got Gose back for Wallace. The Nats farm system isn't bristling with depth and giving up Destin Hood and Marrero for say a Chris Carter (Marrero makes more sense in the AL), but even that might be a stretch. One option would be to package a reliever (Clippard or Burnett) with a prospect or two, to a contender next year like say the Reds for Alonzo. While it's not a bad idea Alonzo isn't exactly a middle of the order hitter, and will likely never be a 30-35 HR hitter much less a 40 a year guy. <br /><br />Now again it would have made sense if we got value for Dunn via prospects (to either trade some for a 1b ala what the Astros did, and/or strengthen another position or two). But losing him now getting a couple of picks who will be in all likelihood less value than what we would need to trade away for a young 1B prospect does not make sense.<br /><br />Also, while yeah having $15 million plus is nice, but the Nats need impact players not more role/platoon/situational guys. Adding a 2nd tier 1B lets say LaRoche, and an OF like Johnny Gomes, and a SP like Millwood is nice but really doesn't get the Nats to the promised land (also i'm guessing they couldn't get all three of those for $15 million). <br /><br />We already have a good chunk of change coming off our books, Capps, Guzman, Kearns buyout, etc. Yes some of it will go to increases for Zim and others including Arb. raises, but there is still plenty left to fit in the extra $3 million for Dunn (his contract had a $10 mil average, but he made $12 mil this year). With the extra money savings and by increasing payroll by another $10 million, the Nats can sign Dunn and add two additional pieces. Unfortunately it might have to be through a trade since the market is weak, but for me having that extra $15 mil looks good on paper, but thats about it.Steveospeakhttp://www.fanspeak.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-23721140572348395312010-09-29T15:40:10.211-04:002010-09-29T15:40:10.211-04:00Great column and debate. Truly interesting stuff....Great column and debate. Truly interesting stuff. I think Feel Wood and Anon12:37 (or some combination thereof) are the closest to having it right, but what do I know? <br /><br />For what it's worth, I'd like to see him back - DC baseball needs a few more pros like Dunn - guys who love their jobs, come to work everyday, and give you their all. The Nats seem to be building up a base of players like that (Dunn, Zimm, Dezi, Espy, Straz, JZimm to name a few), so why let a cornerstone of that chemistry movement go? Pay the guy and let's enjoy his bombs for at least three more years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-7571764599473673552010-09-29T15:32:53.279-04:002010-09-29T15:32:53.279-04:00From Section 223 -
I believe that the team need...From Section 223 -<br /><br /> I believe that the team needs to upgrade in Right Field and lead-off hitter. I don't think Morse is an outfielder.<br /><br /> It doesn't seem that the current infield has any problems with Dunn at 1st base and I know that Zimmerman and Willingham love hitting around Dunn. I think Dunn is getting better at starting double plays and tosses to pitchers covering first. He makes a big target for infielders and has shown the ability to make some picks off low throws. He has only played the position for a year and a half. I don't see him regressing from where he was at the beginning of the year. <br /> I would certainly sign him and concentrate on other areas for improvement.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-5580345076073609552010-09-29T15:32:43.435-04:002010-09-29T15:32:43.435-04:00Considering that as of Monday the Nats won't b...Considering that as of Monday the Nats won't be on the hook for Stan Kasten's salary (which I'd bet isn't too small), you'd think they'd have some room to make Dunn a nice offer. Maybe that's the real reason Stan "retired". He was forced into it so the Lerners would have more money for Adam Dunn....<br />The conspriacy theories abound...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-22624771123272187552010-09-29T15:31:12.747-04:002010-09-29T15:31:12.747-04:00it's the complete lack of range. I know that t...<i>it's the complete lack of range. I know that the SABER folks say they can measure it, but I'm not sure they really do. </i><br /><br />You should watch the Nats first baseman of the future Chris Marerro. And tell me if 31 year old Dunn doesn't have more range and look nimbler? And Marerro is ready for the majors at age 22 ... offensively. <br /><br />People have to realize its going to take some time to get past the Bowden era. As it did with Cincinnati finally doing well under Jockity.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-89585190555980800892010-09-29T15:27:48.701-04:002010-09-29T15:27:48.701-04:00There are other Justin Smoaks out there and it'...<i>There are other Justin Smoaks out there and it's Rizzo's job to find an appropriate trading partner and make a deal work.</i><br /><br />These guys cost in a different. Hard to come by prospect that the Nats are just now starting to acquire and develop post-Bowden. Actually the Nats do have a Smoak? You didn't know? His name is Chris Marerro once ranked as one of the top prospects in the majors and for the Nats. He is still very young at 22. He should be ready next year. <br /><br />But his range and fielding at first base are actually far and away worst than Adam Dunn's. They earlier tried him in the outfield and he was a miserable failure. Yep that bad. <br /><br />Losing good prospects to trade for a top first baseman hurts worst than the money ... and the FO knows that.<br /><br />No, Dunn and 3 years is by far the best, most cost effective and practical solution for the Nationals.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-56968770480424154362010-09-29T15:16:11.461-04:002010-09-29T15:16:11.461-04:00I love Adam Dunn, but.... It's a lot like watc...I love Adam Dunn, but.... It's a lot like watching that other statue we used to have a second base before we traded him to Texas. My mind can't help comparing Esposito to Guzman, and then jumping to someone else compared to Adam. It's not the errors he makes, it's the complete lack of range. I know that the SABER folks say they can measure it, but I'm not sure they really do. <br /><br />I love Adam Dunn, but ..... Really good pitchers can throw a hard breaking pitch inside at his knees that he can not hit.<br /><br />Nevertheless, I hope that we can resign him at a reasonable cost.Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-59492244588988354752010-09-29T15:11:43.405-04:002010-09-29T15:11:43.405-04:00Steve M.
I probably should have been more clear....Steve M. <br /><br />I probably should have been more clear. While I fully believe that Zimmerman is the better player and a true Franchise corner stone, Dunn is the better offensive threat. Zimmerman might be a better all-around hitter, but Dunn's power puts him over the top. Zimmerman has a higher WAR but much of that comes from his exceptional defense, and harder position. <br /><br />Dunn is still the best offensive threat on this team. Not to mention Zimmerman has benefited a lot with hitting either in front or behind Dunn, I'm guessing opposing pitchers won't be as fearful of LaRoche or Pena.Steveospeakhttp://www.fanspeak.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-57117233179835868542010-09-29T14:49:20.692-04:002010-09-29T14:49:20.692-04:00You forgot someone? Willie Harris! I'm sure Ri...You forgot someone? Willie Harris! I'm sure Riggleman would love to see his favorite guy starting at first?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-34615106584847998002010-09-29T14:34:26.070-04:002010-09-29T14:34:26.070-04:00How about ba/slg with RISP?
Morse .306/.484
Sanc...How about ba/slg with RISP?<br />Morse .306/.484<br />Sanchez .296/.484<br />Howard .272/.481<br />Davis .268/.449<br />Lee . 254/.423<br />Dunn .221/.435<br /><br />Now, if you were spending YOUR money on a team which is years away from being in contention, what would your decision be?<br /><br />ADAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-50001816005050326352010-09-29T14:31:50.634-04:002010-09-29T14:31:50.634-04:00What about Flores at first base?What about Flores at first base?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-64497053645727859602010-09-29T14:07:24.590-04:002010-09-29T14:07:24.590-04:00Greaaaaaaaaaaat analysis MarkMeister!
Your analy...Greaaaaaaaaaaat analysis MarkMeister! <br /><br />Your analysis gains sabermetrician credibility when you make comparisons to other players, e.g. Votto, Gonzalez, etc. <br /><br />I'll bet if you check it out with the Nats' FO Geek Platoon you'll be applauded.<br /><br />Thanks for continuing to reinforce an issue that the majority of Nats' fans support.<br /><br />By the way, I don't think that there is much chance of Nats signing Votto, Gonzalez, Tulowitzki, or anybody else with a Zuckerman 16 Rating!!! <br /><br />SIGN ADAM DUNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Dochttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17614998804163989623noreply@blogger.com