tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post3240369661186122931..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: Revisiting Opening Day predictionsMark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-38471592574507244842012-10-04T19:11:38.371-04:002012-10-04T19:11:38.371-04:00I had 81 81. More than presently surprised. Just...I had 81 81. More than presently surprised. Just great enjoyed agreeing and disagreeing with you folks all season. It made the season more enjoyable. Okay I see dc wonk shirts. What is it? I can't back space Pleasantly surprisedSecret wasian manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05627861392111624007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-46493783957562923552012-10-04T17:37:14.326-04:002012-10-04T17:37:14.326-04:00I think Davey was a lot younger then (in 1986)
Um...<i>I think Davey was a lot younger then (in 1986)</i><br /><br />Ummm, yeah . . . by about 26 years or so I would guess ;-)A DC Wonkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09732615221598098540noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-91174664017123249562012-10-04T17:14:37.206-04:002012-10-04T17:14:37.206-04:00I think Davey was a lot younger then (in 1986) and...I think Davey was a lot younger then (in 1986) and the culture was a lot different. I don't know how much a manager could do to stop the self-destruction on the '86 Mets, but from a book I read on that season, he didn't much try.NatsLadyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814911056080758503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-41595898654652336822012-10-04T17:13:52.735-04:002012-10-04T17:13:52.735-04:00Theo: add to that list Kevin Mitchell. (And, if I...Theo: add to that list Kevin Mitchell. (And, if I recall, Davey, one of the youngest managers in a long time -- he was only in his 40's, used to go out drinking with the players. Davey's learned since then). And the stories of trashing planes, and etc.<br /><br />No need to single out anyone for bad influences -- but the full combination couldn't possibly have been healthy for the then (1984) 19-year old Gooden. A DC Wonkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09732615221598098540noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-70565846402546550192012-10-04T17:02:43.229-04:002012-10-04T17:02:43.229-04:00Wasn't sure who DC Wonk might have been might ...Wasn't sure who DC Wonk might have been might have been implying were "knuckleheads" on the '86 Mets, then looked at the roster. Hernandez, Backman, Strawberry, Dykstra, Foster, Sid Fernandez . . .. That must have been a zoo. (Apart from Ray Knight.) I'm not sure any one of them could be singled out for leading Gooden or Strawberry astray but it wasn't for lack of opportunity.Theophilus T. S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16532693473198519382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-8022239378492011712012-10-04T16:58:40.029-04:002012-10-04T16:58:40.029-04:00Wonk, I honestly believed it at the time because o...Wonk, I honestly believed it at the time because of my faith in Johnson and because I thought that Phillies were showing signs of complacency, along with age. But I still am having a very hard time believing that this isn't a dream and that somebody isn't going to wake me up.Joe Seamheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17000259234420985114noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-71781693356202200522012-10-04T16:44:46.742-04:002012-10-04T16:44:46.742-04:00Seamhead -- I remember your prediction, and it see...Seamhead -- I remember your prediction, and it seemed so extreme that I thought, at the time, you were exaggerating for effect. In any event, you get the "prediction of the year" award in my book.<br /><br />As for me, I predicted 89 wins. But can I pretend I was being dyslexic, or making a typo, and I meant 98?A DC Wonkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09732615221598098540noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-79644178518648017452012-10-04T16:42:59.094-04:002012-10-04T16:42:59.094-04:00But he didn't come to a team populated with kn...<i>But he didn't come to a team populated with knuckleheads, either. The guys and Davey gave him the best possible environment to "express his talent" and--yes--go to the playoffs.</i><br /><br />Yes -- players in general, and certainly Davey, know the peril of knuckleheads and their impact on young players. Look no further than Davey's Mets and the wasted potential of Gooden and Strawberry. Yeah, they were great players, but they could have had long HoF careers.A DC Wonkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09732615221598098540noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-32702878111232151502012-10-04T16:41:14.076-04:002012-10-04T16:41:14.076-04:00That makes winning at least one on the road even m...<i>That makes winning at least one on the road even more imperative. </i><br /><br />Agreed. The standard line is often: "split the games on the road, take 2-of-3 at home."A DC Wonkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09732615221598098540noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-89452959303861992802012-10-04T16:35:40.339-04:002012-10-04T16:35:40.339-04:00Even if they let the players travel with the team ...Even if they let the players travel with the team -- I mean, of course we know the major players, but don't you have to get mentally prepared? I would think that especially pitchers need to be gearing up. You can't just wait until Friday night and then say " you - in, you- out". Mentally and emotionally I think they would have to know if they were going to be part of the team. I know in previous years there were some hard choices made, some fan favorites left out. Is there a spot for DeRosa? How many starters/ relievers will they carry? Is Bernie enough speed out there? ( Personally I don't see Eury Perez as being at all ready for prime time, even just running - looks like a terrified rabbit out there). I don't expect Corey Brown to make the team, I think it's mostly pitchers that will need to be sorted out. I know they want to know if they are facing the right-heavy or left-heavy line-up - just seems like a tough thing to wait that long to know.baseballswamihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03473384422940931212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-75663726804971155862012-10-04T16:31:11.601-04:002012-10-04T16:31:11.601-04:00Eugene @ 4:10 pm -- Exactly.
Hat tip to NatsLady ...Eugene @ 4:10 pm -- Exactly.<br /><br />Hat tip to NatsLady in "Best in the Bigs" thread for her comments giving RHP-LHP splits:<br /><br /><i>NatsLady said... <br />Here are the platoon splits:<br /><br />ATL vs. RHP 64-37<br />ATL vs. LHP 30-31<br /><br />STL vs. RHP 57-57<br />STL vs. LHP 31-17<br /><br />October 04, 2012 7:59 AM <br /> NatsLady said...<br />BTW, Nats--<br /><br />vs. RHP 69-45<br />vs. LHP 29-19<br />October 04, 2012 8:01 AM</i><br /><br />Clearly those splits are what Davey saw when he said he'll pitch southpaws vs. Atl and righties vs. StL. Even more fascinating is they've succeeded by feeding on their strength (~64% wins), but are literally mediocre against their Achilles heel (.500 or slightly below) -- whereas Nats are steady against everyone -- 60.5% and 60.4%. Along with the MLB-tops run differential, does give you strong hope if not confidence in the postseason crapshoot -- and also explains why Davey won't name the NLDS roster until after he knows who we're facing.<br /><br /><br />Steady Eddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11342496530868597550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-1493096172463295782012-10-04T16:13:20.660-04:002012-10-04T16:13:20.660-04:00NatsJack, check Saunders record vs Texas. Mot goo...NatsJack, check Saunders record vs Texas. Mot good.Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-80141919412905194602012-10-04T16:10:38.680-04:002012-10-04T16:10:38.680-04:00Swami @ 3:46 p.m.,
Actually I think they can (an...Swami @ 3:46 p.m., <br /><br />Actually I think they can (and will). Particularly the pitching staff. The platoon splits between the Cardinals and Braves are so starkly different, that I expect a surprise (or two?) based on which team wins the play-in game. They may not keep everyone around (e.g., Eury Perez, no offense intended), but I assume Messrs. Rizzo and Johnson will watch the play-in game closely and completely before making the final decisions about the final pitcher or two to put on the playoff roster.Eugene in Oregonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00321559588541830539noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-50763216028762717832012-10-04T16:09:24.156-04:002012-10-04T16:09:24.156-04:00It's after 4:00. Where's tonight's ga...It's after 4:00. Where's tonight's game thread?NCNatsiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00208353346925459087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-30419265396781642852012-10-04T16:00:26.203-04:002012-10-04T16:00:26.203-04:00I don't recall posting any specific numerical ...I don't recall posting any specific numerical predictions, but I did post several pieces predicting big years for Desmond and LaRoche. The guy who really exceeded my expectations was Werth -- and I thought he would do well. But he was amazing this year, IMHO.NCNatsiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00208353346925459087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-59866403188784939642012-10-04T15:59:51.960-04:002012-10-04T15:59:51.960-04:00baseballswami said...
And speaking of playoff ros...<i>baseballswami said... <br />And speaking of playoff rosters.........? Surely they can't just keep everyone in town until Friday night waiting to hear if they are on the roster.</i><br /><br />Everyone who was on the expanded roster in September will probably travel with the team throughout the postseason whether they are on the active roster for that series or not. Also, guys like Ramos who are on the DL may travel with the team too. If they're not allowed to be in the dugout during games, they'll have seats in the stands. Even though they're not active, they're still with the band, as it were. <br /><br />The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13147290573966561009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-3752693187432318992012-10-04T15:57:37.499-04:002012-10-04T15:57:37.499-04:00NatsLady- Good points.
Joe- You were right on the ...NatsLady- Good points.<br />Joe- You were right on the money with that! Good job :)Cwjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18146442872322504255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-42819221641347279132012-10-04T15:53:56.204-04:002012-10-04T15:53:56.204-04:00The above was Mark's Media Predictions from Ap...The above was Mark's Media Predictions from April %th. I had a bunch of what turned out to be Clown Picks, Bro, but on the day before, April 4th, Mark had a MLB Predictions and I posted what I think was pretty close:<br /><br />Joe Seamhead said...<br /><br /> My prediction all along has been that Davey Johnson will be the NL Manager of the Year.That's not going to happen with a 3rd, or 4th place finish.I'm telling you NI er's, the last series against the Phils will be be meaningless because the Phils will be collecting ML Medicare by then, and be out of the race. The dogfight will be with with the Nats and the Braves.<br /> April 04, 2012 7:09 PM <br />Joe Seamheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17000259234420985114noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-12444941898686801132012-10-04T15:46:48.935-04:002012-10-04T15:46:48.935-04:00And speaking of playoff rosters.........? Surely t...And speaking of playoff rosters.........? Surely they can't just keep everyone in town until Friday night waiting to hear if they are on the roster.baseballswamihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03473384422940931212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-61581779002393518762012-10-04T15:45:47.857-04:002012-10-04T15:45:47.857-04:00So,Gio won the Warren Spahn award for left handed ...So,Gio won the Warren Spahn award for left handed pitchers. I am not familiar with that award, but that's awesome for him. Is that a prestigious award and I am just not in the know? Hope he has some nice, empty shelves so that he can start filling them with hardware! I think it's funny that when we read these predictions now, the Nats writers consistently undersold on almost everything! Thanks for the extras, NatsLady -- I hadn't realized that we were NEVER under .500 the whole year?? I also think that two losing streaks of 5 and one winning streak of 8 show absolutely remarkable consistency. Also only shut out 8 times. I am glad we finished 4 games up on the Braves and not 1 - shows it wasn't a fluke or a back in. Hope all the Foolies are sucking on it today at their homes, in their underwear, in front of the tv. baseballswamihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03473384422940931212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-35740745514646658472012-10-04T15:37:03.156-04:002012-10-04T15:37:03.156-04:00I also feel they would not have shut Stras down in...I also feel they would not have shut Stras down in Boston. Too desperate. When I heard Davey say (yesterday on 106.7) that Stas would not be on the playoff roster "if I have my way" I knew that here is the guy who has the best eye on Stras, watched him day in day out, and who shut him down a game early because he knew he was worn down. Is that the eye Bobby V has?NatsLadyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814911056080758503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-76469527603008228232012-10-04T15:33:39.818-04:002012-10-04T15:33:39.818-04:00Cwj, I'm a big proponent of chemistry (see pre...Cwj, I'm a big proponent of chemistry (see previous posts), but in this I agree with bowdenball, Harper would have done fine anywhere, including Boston--if they had brought him up as early. In fact, he might have helped that team overcome their dysfunction because he would have drawn eyes away from Bobby V et al. (Well, if Bobby V would allow eyes on anyone except himself). The question is how someone like <i>Gio</i> would have done in Boston.NatsLadyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814911056080758503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-69078869957150074302012-10-04T15:17:33.334-04:002012-10-04T15:17:33.334-04:00No doubt the veteran players had an influence on H...No doubt the veteran players had an influence on Harper. The "chemistry" of this team appears to be fantastic.<br />I wonder how Harper would have performed in, say, Boston :) Talk about zero chemistry, that pretty much defined the Red Sox this year.Cwjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18146442872322504255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-29289239629547012722012-10-04T15:17:17.762-04:002012-10-04T15:17:17.762-04:00A few posters took their time last night to revisi...A few posters took their time last night to revisit the predictions. I guess Mark is to busy to read their work. Clearly a lot of their time went into it on baseballswami's request and they knew Kerzel picked Gio.Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-40630910284811022362012-10-04T15:17:04.475-04:002012-10-04T15:17:04.475-04:00No mocking here, everyone's predictions were o...No mocking here, everyone's predictions were off, it was a year of exceeding expectations. <br /><br />I think I predicted 91 wins for the Nats. Never would have dreamed of 98. What a year.Avarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15070310253296287000noreply@blogger.com