tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post1737401528940233643..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: On Marquis, Werth and StrasburgMark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger132125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-62071260174230621862011-07-23T13:35:46.958-04:002011-07-23T13:35:46.958-04:00testtestsunderlandhttp://sunderlandsrant.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-8090722745617239352011-07-19T17:56:08.378-04:002011-07-19T17:56:08.378-04:00Agree 100% with raymitten. Don't break up the...Agree 100% with raymitten. Don't break up the great Clip and Store. Don't get BJ on this team, he is just trouble.NatsLadynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-39995499451133750822011-07-19T17:37:32.931-04:002011-07-19T17:37:32.931-04:00raymitten said...
I agree with those that feel th...raymitten said... <br />I agree with those that feel that trading off pieces when we have a chance to finish the season .500 or better would be a mistake. I think the change in culture for the better would be worth more than the prospects we could get for Marquis or Livo. <br />_____________________________<br /><br />Good summation and well said. +3 on that!Gonatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-8547628863772117392011-07-19T17:10:50.037-04:002011-07-19T17:10:50.037-04:00I have been saying with Marquis that he is a freak...<i>I have been saying with Marquis that he is a freak of the statistics. Take his ERA and WHIP and throw it out the window and look at what he does for the teams he plays for and that is enter games as the starting pitcher that ends in wins. Marquis is 8-4 and team is an amazing 13-6 in games Marquis starts is a .685 win percentage. It generally takes a .568 season win percentage to win 92 games and make the playoffs. Conversely, the team is 6-14 in games Livan starts for a .300 winning percentage.<br /><br />I can't explain why it happens but last night was another example. He has the most similar stats to Livan and the team doesn't win for Livan.<br /><br />Whatever it is you take it and re-sign him for 2 more years and hope it continues.</i><br /><br />This argument for extending Marquis makes about as much sense as when he was first signed by the Nats and it was pointed out that he had never, ever pitched for a team that failed to make the playoffs. How'd that one work out?Feel Woodnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-78423830042518181932011-07-19T16:56:27.442-04:002011-07-19T16:56:27.442-04:00I agree with those that feel that trading off piec...I agree with those that feel that trading off pieces when we have a chance to finish the season .500 or better would be a mistake. I think the change in culture for the better would be worth more than the prospects we could get for Marquis or Livo. <br /><br />I do not understand how trading Storen or Clippard is going to improve the team. This is not Matt Capps on a hot streak. Its a number one draft pick who in a years' time has become an extremely reliable closer and the best setup man in baseball right now. Trading either or both of them would be suicide. <br /><br />I really, really do not want BJ Upton. He's been a headcase in Tampa, something akin to Hanley Ramirez (without as much talent). All I keep thinking about is those clips of Longoria busting Upton's chops for his failure to hustle after a fly ball. You can put up with it if you're an estabished team, but for this team trying to set a tone, it could be suicide. I don't understand the percieved need for a leadoff hitter anyway, I think the Shark is doing just fine and has been improving as the year has went on. <br /><br />At this point I think the Nats are probably better off to stand pat and let this team play itself out for the year. There is no real pressing need, and let the improvement show in the final standings, and build in the off season.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-68079320818866426932011-07-19T16:54:47.489-04:002011-07-19T16:54:47.489-04:00Thanks. Read back to when I first started writing ...<i><br />Thanks. Read back to when I first started writing on Marquis and as soon as I compared him statistically to Livan, some people didn't like the results of my research. It is what it is.</i><br /><br />I was one of those objecting -- and I still am.<br /><br />Last time around, I asked what pitchers were opposing Livo (since it seems this year as if he often pitched against #1 pitchers) compared to what pitchers were pitching against Marquis.<br /><br />To make it crystal clear: Livo started against the #1 pitcher for the Braves -- Marquis started against a rookie pitcher for the Astros. Of *course* the probability is that Marquis will get the win and Livo the loss!<br /><br />Until anyone answers that, I think your stats don't really show anything.<br /><br />See examples ranging from Nolan Ryan, to, King Felix (or, for laughs, Clippard a 1.000 batting average against in the all star game -- yet walked away with the win).A DC Wonknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-10297439173587572782011-07-19T16:53:18.815-04:002011-07-19T16:53:18.815-04:00I say let Rizzo concentrate on signing the draft p...I say let Rizzo concentrate on signing the draft picks (both the high and the lows) and take a wait and see attitude with trades. I think if he signs all five remaining high ones and a few of the others it will be much more important than spending time setting up marginal trades.Nats in Athensnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-24792875485518010512011-07-19T16:46:24.347-04:002011-07-19T16:46:24.347-04:00Lineup from Washingtonpost.com:
Nationals
1. Dan...Lineup from Washingtonpost.com:<br />Nationals <br /><br />1. Danny Espinosa, 2B<br />2. Ian Desmond, SS<br />3. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B<br />4. Michael Morse, 1B<br />5. Jayson Werth, RF<br />6. Wilson Ramos, C<br />7. Roger Bernadina, CF<br />8. Jerry Hairston, LF<br />9. Jordan Zimmermann, SP<br /><br />Astros <br /><br />1. Michael Bourn, CF<br />2. Jeff Keppinger, 2B<br />3. Chris Wallace, 1B<br />4. Hunter Pence, RF<br />5. Carlos Lee, LF<br />6. Chris Johnson, 3B<br />7. Clint Barmes, SS<br />8. Humberto Quintero, C<br />9. J.A. Happ, SP<br /><br />Worth hitting 5th - yuck. You know a guy is struggling when I hope he walks in a key situation, so other have a chance. That's how I feel about Worth.Tcostantnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-80115987491812741402011-07-19T16:24:46.065-04:002011-07-19T16:24:46.065-04:00Nice list building of completely untouchable playe...Nice list building of completely untouchable players - the reason I like it is that it shows we have some permanent pieces of the puzzle formerly known as "The Plan". I agree with previous posters that listening to the great Nook Logan debacle brings back funny memories but also reminds us that the team has moved along. On July 19th, 2011 The Washington Nationals are in first place in the NL East and are a .500 team. In previous years I would have considered that a miracle. I can remember wondering if we would win 50 in the whole season. Now - stay healthy, keeping moving forward and add those remaining pieces. I am starting to "expect it".masnstinksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-37587752157761354182011-07-19T16:04:11.070-04:002011-07-19T16:04:11.070-04:00Whereas, the Rookie of the Year would just about b...Whereas, the Rookie of the Year would just about being decided. I rest my case.<br /><br />Now, what is Hebrew for Rookie? (Shana being "year").Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-24061977081884251482011-07-19T16:01:52.857-04:002011-07-19T16:01:52.857-04:00Well, just in case you were wondering, Rosh Hashan...Well, just in case you were wondering, Rosh Hashanah starts this year at sundown on September 28th, about the time the final game of the regular season (4:10pm at Marlins) should be wrapping up. <br /><br />So for Strasburg to make his return on Stras-Hoshanah would be a very late return indeed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-46458266784201981732011-07-19T15:54:36.567-04:002011-07-19T15:54:36.567-04:00If I were Rizzo, I'd hang on to Nix; good LHH ...If I were Rizzo, I'd hang on to Nix; good LHH off the bench are hard to find. He also could fill in for the OF regulars, in all three positions, in the next few years.<br /><br />Man, I like the way he grabs a bat!!!!!!NatStatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-44183115122030934222011-07-19T15:46:47.388-04:002011-07-19T15:46:47.388-04:00OK, 3:39, but I'm reserving Shana-nosa for our...<i>OK, 3:39, but I'm reserving Shana-nosa for our ROY candidate.</i><br /><br />I still like Klaxen-osa ... he might hit 40 this year?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-46200348307926404142011-07-19T15:44:35.879-04:002011-07-19T15:44:35.879-04:00OK, 3:39, but I'm reserving Shana-nosa for our...OK, 3:39, but I'm reserving Shana-nosa for our ROY candidate.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-58556625746597312752011-07-19T15:39:00.922-04:002011-07-19T15:39:00.922-04:00As to The Inevitable Return, I know nobody else wi...<i>As to The Inevitable Return, I know nobody else will, but I'm sticking with Stras Hashana.</i><br /><br />I think that would undoubtedly fit Jason Marquis better. Marquis Hashana and Strasqua. (Pasqua for Easter).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-50015093235473500452011-07-19T15:33:22.348-04:002011-07-19T15:33:22.348-04:00you would make the playoffs every year but you wou...<i>you would make the playoffs every year but you would lose in the first round of the playoffs </i><br /><br />Pretty much like the Braves did.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-77642542718440087162011-07-19T15:30:32.329-04:002011-07-19T15:30:32.329-04:00Read back to when I first started writing on Marqu...<i>Read back to when I first started writing on Marquis and as soon as I compared him statistically to Livan, some people didn't like the results of my research.</i><br /><br />I don't have to. I was one of them.<br />; )Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-512868331354368882011-07-19T15:28:36.757-04:002011-07-19T15:28:36.757-04:00You can take this to the bank: Jordan Zimmermann a...<i>You can take this to the bank: Jordan Zimmermann and Danny Espinosa are now as untouchable as Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. Or Ryan Zimmerman. Trading them would be the sign of a team in need of a new GM. </i><br /><br />I might even add Storen to the margins of that list.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-21710844997782148512011-07-19T15:25:54.571-04:002011-07-19T15:25:54.571-04:00Thanks re. the radio show, sec3.
SteveM, I recal...Thanks re. the radio show, sec3. <br /><br />SteveM, I recalled your earlier posts and thought of them when I saw the AK post. Verry interresting... <br /><br />gonatsgo, I also like to see a nice bunt laid down. Speaking of HRs, I kinda like inside-the-parkers. :-)natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-10403671379812513092011-07-19T15:25:34.924-04:002011-07-19T15:25:34.924-04:00Based on Elias stats, almost definitely using 2 ye...<i>Based on Elias stats, almost definitely using 2 years like 2011 a Type B and possibly a Type A depending on who declares for Free Agency.<br /><br />Since it is a 2 year average he walks this year with no compensation unless he is traded while under team control or his contract is extended. </i><br />Thanks, Steve M. That's what I figured. Which is why I'd be willing to overpay just a little on a one-year contract, but that's all (not that they ask me). Odds he has another year like this one aren't bad, but if he gets two, and either of them are bad, you're right back where you started.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-81190160181407140572011-07-19T15:23:11.876-04:002011-07-19T15:23:11.876-04:00Sec 3, My Sofa said...
Steve M. said...
A friend ...<i>Sec 3, My Sofa said... <br />Steve M. said...<br />A friend of mine just emailed me this from Adam Kilgore. Now I have been writing about Jason Marquis's incredible win percentage for weeks and today Kilgore writes his piece (coincidence, I think not!): <br /><br />You have indeed. Even if it was a coincidence, you were there first. (If it were me, I'd politely ask AK if my research figured in his research. Just for fun.) July 19, 2011 3:12 PM </i><br /><br />Thanks. Read back to when I first started writing on Marquis and as soon as I compared him statistically to Livan, some people didn't like the results of my research. It is what it is.<br /><br />I love statistical anomalies and the other pitchers with stats that follow suit aren't an anomaly as they just win. Guys like Roy Halladay and Jair Jurjjens. <br /><br />Jason Marquis is a head-scratcher but like I said he has made a career of winning with "average" skills. If you had 5 like him, you would make the playoffs every year but you would lose in the first round of the playoffs so you have to know what you have.<br /><br />He will take you to the dance and leave before the music starts.Steve M.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-63837840509801158682011-07-19T15:20:59.965-04:002011-07-19T15:20:59.965-04:00My apologies to the Insiders, but in a blatant rip...My apologies to the Insiders, but in a blatant ripoff of sec3, I have to ask whether the choice on trading or re-signing Jason should be referred to as<br /><br />The Marquis Decide<br /><br />It is, to be sure, a torturous question.Anonymous (okay: out of embarrassment)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-31905973023729520602011-07-19T15:20:45.466-04:002011-07-19T15:20:45.466-04:00Hmmm well seeing that Davey Johnson is about to tr...Hmmm well seeing that Davey Johnson is about to try Espinosa out as lead off I am thinking BJ Upton ... definitely, seriously NOT Michael Bourn who WOULD NEVER BE WORTH the prospects they would have to give up to get him. Zach Grienke an ace starting pitcher is one thing ... <br /><br />BUT I am sorry people but its pretty silly to treat Bourn like he is a difference maker. HE'S NOT period. Grienke perhaps yes. Bourn definitely NOT.<br /><br />Michael Morse is more of a difference maker that that guy and I doubt any of you would trade the sparse and few prospects the Nats have for him? STOP already? <br /><br />Upton has a lot more upside than Bourn and they similar ages. Upton features some pretty decent power and he is the better fielder with an arm to go with it. <br /><br />You can take this to the bank: Jordan Zimmermann and Danny Espinosa are now as untouchable as Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. Or Ryan Zimmerman. Trading them would be the sign of a team in need of a new GM.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-38846213403221964122011-07-19T15:20:28.467-04:002011-07-19T15:20:28.467-04:00Mark, thanks for the Charlie link on Nook Logan...Mark, thanks for the Charlie link on Nook Logan's brain freeze. One cannot listen to that enough to realize how far this team has come, even with Jayson Werth's brain freeze last night. Understatement of the year: "If it wasn't obvious by now, Werth is really pressing."<br /><br />Only like a Chinese laundry.<br /><br />GYFNG!!Sunshine_Bobby_Carpenter_Is_Too_Pessimistic_For_Menoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-12089647525237454592011-07-19T15:18:51.140-04:002011-07-19T15:18:51.140-04:00NatsLady - It would very nice if Jayson Werth pret...NatsLady - It would very nice if Jayson Werth pretended to be a pitcher at the plate since most of them hit better than he does. Question for NI bloggers who have time to research these things -- it seems to me that our pitchers, as a whole starting staff, are pretty good hitters -is it true? is this unusual or is it a new trend in mlb? Or am I just so starved to see a hit of any kind that I celebrate wildly whenever I see one? All of our starters have hits now -- plus - I also think our pitchers are all pretty nifty bunters. As much as we yadda, yadda, yadda - don't like to give up outs - yadda, yadda, yadda - I love a good sac bunt to move the runner into scoring position. I know it's different when pitchers do it than when position players do it -- Espi laid down a beauty last night. I like some small ball! Home runs are just so gaudy ;)gonatsgonoreply@blogger.com