tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post1726102076850619114..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: Looking at clinch scenariosMark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger59125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-11800116208154480322012-09-25T15:58:24.187-04:002012-09-25T15:58:24.187-04:00William O. Douglas Loeffler said...
But in fairne...<i>William O. Douglas Loeffler said... <br />But in fairness, did any of those teams have an injury as significant as the Nats did with respect to losing Strasburg for the rest of the season?</i><br /><br />The Nats are 8-7 since Strasburg went down. If they can maintain that pace for the remaining nine games they'll be fine. <br /><br />The Real Feel Wood. Accept no substitutes.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13147290573966561009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-60548904775493821642012-09-25T15:48:28.758-04:002012-09-25T15:48:28.758-04:00But in fairness, did any of those teams have an in...But in fairness, did any of those teams have an injury as significant as the Nats did with respect to losing Strasburg for the rest of the season?Jane Elizabethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13860550544008642749noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-59621495849267384682012-09-25T15:28:30.923-04:002012-09-25T15:28:30.923-04:00Here are some other facts:
In 2011, the Yankees l...Here are some other facts:<br /><br />In 2011, the Yankees led by 5 games with 10 to play. The Brewers led by 5.5 games with 11 to play. The D-Backs were up by 5 games with 9 to play. <br /><br />In 2010, the Rangers were up by 7 games with 10 to play. The Phillies were up by 5 games with 10 to play. <br /><br />Not only did every one of these teams win their divisions, but they all increased the distance between them and their nearest competitor. <br /><br />And more importantly, as far as I can tell, since MLB went to 3 divisions in each league in 1995, not a single team that has led its division by 5 or more games with 9 to play has ended up losing the division. (The 2007 Mets' lead had already been cut to 1.5 games with 9 to play.) <br /><br />Obviously it's mathematically possible for the Nats not to win the NL East. That's why they still have a magic number. But with this team and this manager -- we got this.Section 222https://www.blogger.com/profile/17106128453333996193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-19020951457396868772012-09-25T15:28:21.731-04:002012-09-25T15:28:21.731-04:00I agree Donald.
You have to play the games, but o...I agree Donald.<br /><br />You have to play the games, but on paper, and in Vegas, it doesn't look good.<br /><br />Philly's a -150 against the Nats and Atlanta is a whopping -270 to -300 against the Fish.<br /><br />For those of you non-bettors out there, that means you have to bet $150 on the Phillies to win $100 straight up. If you bet on the Nats to win, you will win $150.<br /><br />For the Braves, that number is crazy huge. Betting $300 on the Braves to win to only win $100? Wowza!<br /><br />You still have to play the games though. Dizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07908665836132809483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-18523296881752394792012-09-25T15:23:12.796-04:002012-09-25T15:23:12.796-04:00I enjoy discussing these things but I do note that...I enjoy discussing these things but I do note that coolstandings has the Nats with a 98.7 percent chance of winning the division.<br /><br />In the words of Homer J. Simpson, "I like those odds...."Jane Elizabethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13860550544008642749noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-26522635436361808932012-09-25T15:21:17.422-04:002012-09-25T15:21:17.422-04:00I think one reason why Davey is already mentioning...I think one reason why Davey is already mentioning resting his starters has less to do with rest and more to do with instilling confidence in the franchise (Montreal) and city (Washington) which have together had a grand total of one play-off series since 1933.<br /><br />He is sending a message that this series is over, just as he did after the Nats won the final two games against the Braves in August and noted how disappointed the Braves must have been. Jane Elizabethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13860550544008642749noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-27771318006787359442012-09-25T15:19:39.794-04:002012-09-25T15:19:39.794-04:00OK, I'm rooting for
(1) Fish (can't belie...OK, I'm rooting for<br /><br />(1) Fish (can't believe it)<br />(2) Cards to lose; Dodgers and Brewers to win. <br />#2 because the longer the WC race goes on, the longer those teams wear themselves out. <br /><br />NATS TO WIN!!!!! If the Astros can beat the Fillies, so can we. Go for it, Ross.NatsLadyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814911056080758503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-59936475531762590722012-09-25T15:12:05.224-04:002012-09-25T15:12:05.224-04:00Tonight's going to be a hard night to reduce t...Tonight's going to be a hard night to reduce the magic number (or race for HFA). The Nats face Hamels in Philly while the Braves are pitching Medlin and the Reds Cueto. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the lead were down to 4 by night's end with our magic number still at 5. But that isn't a reason to panic. This is just probably the hardest night to gain ground that we will have over the rest of the season. If we win or the Braves or Reds lose, that's just gravy in my opinion. Donaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12295227567170577873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-35903318280758176652012-09-25T15:08:59.049-04:002012-09-25T15:08:59.049-04:00Lets win tonight and let the numbers take care of ...Lets win tonight and let the numbers take care of themselvesSCNatsFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05521403318226328638noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-8481263498634686612012-09-25T15:08:47.548-04:002012-09-25T15:08:47.548-04:00Even if the Cardinals were to fall flat on their f...Even if the Cardinals were to fall flat on their faces their last 8 games, the Phillies still have the Brewers and Dodgers ahead of them and tied with the DBacks.<br /><br />I would almost say, put a fork in the Phillies. Those 3 losses last week against the pathetic Houston Astros really cost them.Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-48837452225398111752012-09-25T15:06:20.901-04:002012-09-25T15:06:20.901-04:00The Cardinals have a 3 1/2 game lead in the Wild C...The Cardinals have a 3 1/2 game lead in the Wild Card over the Brewers & Dodgers. <br /><br />The Cardinals are 5 1/2 games ahead of the Phillies and DBacks.<br /><br />The Cards have 8 games remaining.Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-86191096443002481892012-09-25T15:01:53.849-04:002012-09-25T15:01:53.849-04:00Theolhilus-
You are confusing "can't hap...Theolhilus-<br /><br />You are confusing "can't happen" with "very unlikely to happen."<br /><br />Of course it can happen. But it's also very unlikely. And every post in this subject needs to acknowledge that fact.<br /><br />As to your comment that if the Nats go 3-3 and the Braves go 5-1 it means "there's an important series to be played," well that's a little misleading too. If that were to happen, the magic number would be one. We can assume every game in those final series is a 50/50 proposition (they'd actually be slight favorites on the road vs. PIT but we'd be as big or bigger favorites at home vs an eliminated PHL team). If so, the chances of us not clinching if we go into the final three games with a magic number of 1 would be under 2%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-23077198206590820252012-09-25T15:00:58.190-04:002012-09-25T15:00:58.190-04:00By the way, the AL Central is down to the Chicago ...By the way, the AL Central is down to the Chicago White Sox (82-71) and the Detroit Tigers (81-72). Doubtful that the team that doesn't win their division will get a Wild Card due to they are so far behind the 2nd Wild Card by 5 games and 3 teams to leapfrog.<br />Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-72831269242914162322012-09-25T14:57:43.228-04:002012-09-25T14:57:43.228-04:00I am more of a believer in bad luck than choking, ...I am more of a believer in bad luck than choking, but, if you want to try to decide which city is more snakebit in baseball luck between Atlanta and Washington, it could be a good argument.<br /><br />Atlanta needed to finally find itself in a World Series with Cleveland, just to win a World Series, against another franchise ever more snakebit than they are. <br /><br />By the math, the Braves should have won several titles in the last 20 years. They were like the Dodgers of the late forties and fifties, who also only one one title, and that was without all the extra rounds we have now. The Braves are hardly the Boston Celtics in terms of always getting the breaks.Jane Elizabethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13860550544008642749noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-44445681716343961052012-09-25T14:55:59.035-04:002012-09-25T14:55:59.035-04:00First, people hark back to the Nats 2011 drive for...First, people hark back to the Nats 2011 drive for .500, which included a 13-4 run (not to mention and earlier 11-1 run), then they say the Braves can't run the table, playing nine against the Little Sisters of the Poor for the next nine days. Well, yes they can.<br /><br />I happen to think they won't. For the record, on the last post, I said:<br /><br /> "I doubt the Braves have the pitching to run the table, Medlin notwithstanding. I also think he's far overdue for a pratfall. Nobody goes a year-and-a half without losing a start. I think they lose at least three."<br /><br /> All it takes, in fact, is for the Nats to go 3-3 against the Mets and Cardinals, and the Braves to go 5-1 against the Fish and Mets and, then, there's an important series against Philthadelphia to be played.<br /><br /> Justice Douglas is correct; if it comes down to the last series, anything can happen.<br />Theophilus T. S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16532693473198519382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-42715703215257527172012-09-25T14:54:43.144-04:002012-09-25T14:54:43.144-04:00Look at the A's, Yankees, Orioles, Angels, Tam...Look at the A's, Yankees, Orioles, Angels, Tampa, Texas and especially the White Sox and Tigers. These teams are literally seperated by one bad play.<br /><br />The Nats are in the post-season, none of those teams above are guaranteed anything as only 5 of those 8 will make it.<br /><br />In the American League, nobody has clinched although Texas is close to a guaranteed Wild Card.<br /><br />People in each of those cities are going nuts with possibilities.Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-76180162517675357122012-09-25T14:52:14.798-04:002012-09-25T14:52:14.798-04:00Laddie Blah Blah said...
"Here are some fact...Laddie Blah Blah said...<br /><br />"Here are some facts:<br /><br />On 9/20/1964 the Phillies held a 6 1/2 game lead with 12 to play.<br /><br />On 9/22/1962 the Dodgers held a 4 game lead with 7 to play.<br /><br />On 9/27/2009 the Tigers held a 3 game lead with 4 to play.<br /><br />None of those teams won their league's pennant, or divisional title.<br /><br />The Nats need to win the 5 they require for the divisional title. None of those other teams thought they would lose, either, and neither did the baseball press corps, but none of those teams got the job done. You cannot count on the other guys losing, and I'll just bet that Davey isn't, either."<br /><br /><br />Here is one other fact: for every team that's blown a lead like this, there are literally dozens, if not hundreds, that held them. <br /><br />Sure, it's possible that the Nats will blow a 5 game lead with 9 to play. But it is very, very, very, very unlikely. Anyone who says otherwise is going against history and statistics.<br /><br />As a fan, I'm nervous about it too, because it would be so painful. But you have to separate the emotions of fandom from a rational evaluation of the situation. Three examples out of hundreds is simply evidence that something is technically possible, not that it's remotely likely to happen.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-19622977714798717972012-09-25T14:49:52.869-04:002012-09-25T14:49:52.869-04:00The other thing that has to be mentioned is that, ...The other thing that has to be mentioned is that, let's assume the Braves tie the Nats, as unlikely as it is. Then there would be a play-off, which, of course the Braves would win, right? They would have the momentum, wouldn't they?<br /><br />There is no appreciable momentum in baseball and we have all seen that in the last week or weeks with the Nats making great comebacks only to lose in the 9th to the seemingly demoralized opponent, or the Braves getting 3 to tie the Marlins in perhaps the Braves' most import game of the year, but then losing in extra innings to the last place demoralized Marlins.Jane Elizabethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13860550544008642749noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-78127397137511192212012-09-25T14:43:25.960-04:002012-09-25T14:43:25.960-04:00Anything that goes down to the final weekend with ...Anything that goes down to the final weekend with 2 teams still in contention is an entirely different matter from what is being discussed by most people on here. If we get to the last series of the year and the Nats lead by 3 or less, than you start getting into the realm of mathematics where, although unlikely, things become possible for the Braves.<br /><br />You can't just jump there because by doing so, you are chopping six games off the schedule during which we would expect the Nats to play close to .600 ball. That completely alters the probabilities. If the Nats' lead is down to 2 or 3 by the final series, then I think everyone will be sweating at least a bit, but that is not where we are now.<br /><br />You can do the permutations, which are that hard since both the Braves and the Nats play close to the same percentage ball, but the general point is that mathematically, it is harder to lose a six game lead with 6 games left than it is to lose a 3 game lead with 3 games left.Jane Elizabethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13860550544008642749noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-9205538002865785982012-09-25T14:39:08.186-04:002012-09-25T14:39:08.186-04:00Laddie
That's great. Now, go back over 50 ye...Laddie<br /><br />That's great. Now, go back over 50 years and count all the teams that had similar leads and DID make the playoffs. <br /><br />What's that? You're only interested in those rare examples that confirm your worst fears? Got it. hiramhoverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08496411226029547341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-28854180440645380132012-09-25T14:31:27.579-04:002012-09-25T14:31:27.579-04:00Here's an early pic of the possible Nats Divis...Here's an early pic of the possible Nats Division Champs "official t-shirt". <br /><br />Bryan Scrafford @bscrafford <br />Here's a shirt for when the #nats clinch NL East http://twitpic.com/ay90ad <br /><br />Ghost Of Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05745394350047225996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-83822764405081382822012-09-25T14:31:19.688-04:002012-09-25T14:31:19.688-04:00I should have added: "We got this folks."...I should have added: "We got this folks." If you'd rather be nervous and worried for the next week, or scared of the fading Phils, go for it. But we got this. Section 222https://www.blogger.com/profile/17106128453333996193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-41150624839164395272012-09-25T14:30:50.431-04:002012-09-25T14:30:50.431-04:00Here are some facts:
On 9/20/1964 the Phillies he...Here are some facts:<br /><br />On 9/20/1964 the Phillies held a 6 1/2 game lead with12 to play.<br /><br />On 9/22/1962 the Dodgers held a 4 game lead with 7 to play.<br /><br />On 9/27/2009 the Tigers held a 3 game lead with 4 to play.<br /><br />None of those teams won their league's pennant, or divisional title.<br /><br />The Nats need to win the 5 they require for the divisional title. None of those other teams thought they would lose, either, and neither did the baseball press corps, but none of those teams got the job done. You cannot count on the other guys losing, and I'll just bet that Davey isn't, either. Laddie Blah Blahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16474416524698003749noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-55982129239371739452012-09-25T14:29:30.834-04:002012-09-25T14:29:30.834-04:00speaking of old predictions ... (puffing out chest...speaking of old predictions ... (puffing out chest):<br /><br /> whatsanattau said... <br />Desmond is not the best fielder ever, but his range is good and his throwing has improved (or maybe it was never as bad as it appeared when Dunn was the firstbaseman). <br /><br />Offensively he has looked strong so far. He will likely ebb and flow but 15 HR, 20 sb, and .340 OBP is not an unreasonable expectation for this year. His OBP has always been better at the top of the lineup - or more specifically, when batting with protection. I know it is de rigueur to criticize our own players to prove we know something about baseball, but Desmond is actually a valuable asset to this team... <br /><br />April 04, 2012 10:45 AM <br /><br />and ...<br /><br /> whatsanattau said... <br />Desmond had OBP of .326, .328, and .331 July-Spetember 2011 and carried a +20 OBP when batting 1st in the order (i.e, his OBP was 20 points higher batting first). None of those numbers is .340, but all of them trend nicely and Desmond is still just 26. The assertion that he never hit that number at any level is completly wrong. (Just because you say it, does not make it true) he's had years of .357 (A ball in 2007) and .401 (AAA, AA 2009). <br /><br />April 04, 2012 1:01 PM <br />whatsanattauhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00850503917079519599noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-90248314850471246242012-09-25T14:28:54.406-04:002012-09-25T14:28:54.406-04:00Since I'm so good at predicting, here's an...Since I'm so good at predicting, here's another one: The Braves aren't going to go 9-0. Or 8-1. Or 7-2. As I discussed yesterday, they don't have it in them to keep up the pace they've been setting, nor would it be good for their post season hopes to pull out all the stops trying. <br /><br />In particular, I expect they will think twice about running their top relievers out there day after day with the playoffs looming. Those guys need some rest to be at full strength for the WC and NLDS. <br /><br />So I think the Braves will lose at least 2 games over the next 6, which means the Nats only have to win 3 of their next 6 to be NL East champions by the time we see them in DC again. Section 222https://www.blogger.com/profile/17106128453333996193noreply@blogger.com