tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post1265545696794571608..comments2024-02-15T05:42:18.307-05:00Comments on Nats Insider: The one-run wonders do it againMark Zuckermanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13525315258889435961noreply@blogger.comBlogger83125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-29922443201281168182011-07-06T12:12:25.036-04:002011-07-06T12:12:25.036-04:00Same number of games comparable would be July 9, 2...Same number of games comparable would be July 9, 2010, when they were 39-48.<br /><br />Sec 3, My Sofa said...<br /><br /> Of course, that's not the same number of games, so it's not really "this point" in the season, anyway, but whatever.natsfan1anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-50123842487752037042011-07-06T11:57:00.970-04:002011-07-06T11:57:00.970-04:00I hope you're right and I am wrong. Please let...<i>I hope you're right and I am wrong. Please let me be wrong... </i><br /><br />That now appears to depend on injuries and hitting with RISP. Bixler and Morse lead in that category both hitting over .300. Followed closely by Espinosa and Pudge around .295. Mr. Clutch Zim is .265. Zim, Werth, Nix, Ramos and Desmond have to improve in this area. Needless to say Stairs? What does he bring to this team? <br /><br />As for injuries Davey has been playing Stairs a lot more and in the field and he looks to be a multiple injury about to happen and then on to the 60-day DL. Hmmmm, wonder if that's intentional? <br /><br />Zimmerman's injury will it heal enough or is it tee it up for the next season after an off season of conditioning. <br /><br />Pitching injuries. The Nats have been lucky their starters really haven't been touched yet. When that happens its about how good the boys in AAA are. Stammen, Milone, and Meyers. Have to assume Detwiler is a reliever and spot starter here on out. He barely made it to 5.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-32450083709343340552011-07-06T11:44:01.204-04:002011-07-06T11:44:01.204-04:00Yeah, I guess an 11-game improvement would be 7 mo...Yeah, I guess an 11-game improvement would be 7 more wins and 4 fewer losses.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-19583617570665484352011-07-06T11:25:18.128-04:002011-07-06T11:25:18.128-04:00Of course, that's not the same number of games...Of course, that's not the same number of games, so it's not really "this point" in the season, anyway, but whatever.<br /><br />_______________________________________<br />Sec 3, My Sofa said...<br /> they are 44-43; this time last year they were 37-47. 37 + 7 = 44, hence a 7-game improvement, so far.<br /> Or, you could say they were 10 games under .500, and now they are 1 over, so that's 11 games.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-28607695256868658862011-07-06T11:21:20.109-04:002011-07-06T11:21:20.109-04:00I remember Harry Caray talking to Steve Stone abou...I remember Harry Caray talking to Steve Stone about bad calls evening out eventually. "Not in my career, they didn't!" Stone said.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-60335956497484309242011-07-06T11:18:28.330-04:002011-07-06T11:18:28.330-04:00Re: Nats being 7 games better at this point.
That...Re: Nats being 7 games better at this point.<br /><br />That's a huge improvement, if you think about it, however. If I recall, the Nats improvement of 10+ games was the most (or second most) in the NL last year (or the year before?)A DC Wonknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-25037361544959002472011-07-06T11:17:40.015-04:002011-07-06T11:17:40.015-04:00Dave, I think what outsider meant by "7 games...Dave, I think what outsider meant by "7 games" (and O/s, please correct me if I'm wrong) is:<br />they are 44-43; this time last year they were 37-47. 37 + 7 = 44, hence a 7-game improvement, so far.<br />Or, you could say they were 10 games under .500, and now they are 1 over, so that's 11 games.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-11214141403889196862011-07-06T11:16:37.390-04:002011-07-06T11:16:37.390-04:00@ Sec 3, My Sofa:
Looked like it was good call to...@ Sec 3, My Sofa:<br /><br />Looked like it was good call too, from my camera angle. Nix's hand just beat Ramirez's glove. Cubbies bench needs to drink more Gator Aid!<br /><br />Vis-a-vis 1-run game probabilities: Let's hope the Law of Probabilities in the Nats' batters' box catches up to them before the Law of Probabilities of winning 1-run games overtakes them!Docnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-81971775644473197652011-07-06T11:15:04.156-04:002011-07-06T11:15:04.156-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-77662170074179396352011-07-06T11:12:00.302-04:002011-07-06T11:12:00.302-04:00Dave.... as for Outsider, I'm with you. I have...Dave.... as for Outsider, I'm with you. I have no idea what he was saying there. <br /><br />And we did get two gifts from the 3rd base umpire last night. But heck, it's about time we caught some breaks like that.NatsJack in Floridanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-27484908468823724222011-07-06T11:09:26.777-04:002011-07-06T11:09:26.777-04:00Thanks, that's what I thought at the time. I&#...Thanks, that's what I thought at the time. I'll trust my eyes from Sec. 310 over a major league umpire 10 feet from the play any day. : )Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-23184558134038374112011-07-06T11:09:23.396-04:002011-07-06T11:09:23.396-04:00Regarding Run Support Average.
ESPN's definiti...Regarding Run Support Average.<br />ESPN's definition is "Run support. Team's runs scored (average, per 9 innings pitched) while the pitcher of record"<br />I could not find FanGraphs definition.<br />But it's interesting / odd that they show very different numbers.Sunderlandnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-76370957724342356342011-07-06T11:07:27.556-04:002011-07-06T11:07:27.556-04:00Sam said... The "Law of Averages" does n...<i>Sam said... The "Law of Averages" does not exist.</i> <br /><br />Well, yes and no -- depending on what one thinks it is and how it gets applied.<br /><br />As for the Nats and one-run games, there's nothing in the "law of averages" -- or anything else for that matter -- that says that "because the team has won a lot of one run games, now they are going to lose a bunch."<br /><br />What _is_ correct to say: it's more likely that the Nats will win approximately 50% of their future one-run games than they will lose or win a great majority of them.A DC Wonknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-9262334643075581272011-07-06T11:07:07.731-04:002011-07-06T11:07:07.731-04:00Nix, that's right. Not Zim. But yes, he was de...Nix, that's right. Not Zim. But yes, he was definitely out.Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07243007019646325480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-19281604895831339482011-07-06T11:06:04.227-04:002011-07-06T11:06:04.227-04:00Nix was out at 3rd. Ump didn't have a good lin...Nix was out at 3rd. Ump didn't have a good line of sight.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-74060819516324650822011-07-06T11:05:00.093-04:002011-07-06T11:05:00.093-04:00@Sec 3, looking at the game replay on MASN last ni...@Sec 3, looking at the game replay on MASN last night, it looked like the umpire gave the Nats a gift. The ball definitely beat Zim's hand back to third base.Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07243007019646325480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-22187092853040168692011-07-06T11:01:01.291-04:002011-07-06T11:01:01.291-04:00Backing up slightly, but on the double play at thi...Backing up slightly, but on the double play at third, it was hard to tell from the 310 seats, but based on the TV angle, was it a good call?Soul Possession, PFB Sofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891662837668214475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-60464724905564823332011-07-06T11:00:19.525-04:002011-07-06T11:00:19.525-04:00@Outsider, I wasn't a math major, so I am prob...@Outsider, I wasn't a math major, so I am probably missing something, but...<br /><br />37-47 is a win percentage of .440.<br /><br />44-43 is a win percentage of .506.<br /><br />A season of .440 results in a record of 71-91. A season of .506 is a record of 82-80.<br /><br />Is that not 11 games better for the season? Or are you talking about games out of first place or something? <br /><br />I would be happy to be educated on this point.Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07243007019646325480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-33320147879248885462011-07-06T10:58:14.199-04:002011-07-06T10:58:14.199-04:00Speaking of reversion to the mean, I join Davey J....Speaking of reversion to the mean, I join Davey J. in anxiously looking forward to the time when Werth's hitting returns to what it's been the last 4-5 years (even substracting a bit from last year when his BA was above his career average) -- and Zim gets going, as he always does. Hairston going down hurt, too, since he added a lot to a weak hitting team with his BA of .260. Anyway, when Werth and Zim get going and with Morse and Nix and Espinoza and Lombardozzi (oops, getting ahead of myself), the Nats should be putting on an even better show soon.Richardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-85208797411847301972011-07-06T10:55:22.582-04:002011-07-06T10:55:22.582-04:00Sam
No, the runs support doesn't mean much ov...Sam<br /><br />No, the runs support doesn't mean much over small #s of IP.<br /><br />Fangraphs, by the way, counts differently than ESPN - they count only the runs scored while that pitcher was the pitcher of record. So in that Os game, Marquis pitched only 4 innings but still got credited with the runs scored by the Nats in the top of the 5th, because he hadn't officially been yanked til HRod came in in the bottom of the 5th.<br /><br />The way fangraphs counts, Marquis is still far and away the leader among Nats SP in run support, with 3.9 run support per start. Even ignoring that Os game, he's at 3.4.<br /><br />Most of the Nats other SPs are in the range of 2.1 to 2.6 run support per start. Gorzo is the worst, with only 1.8.<br /><br />Which, of course, is why W-L record isn't a very good wy to judge a SP.HHovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-83064577293749870922011-07-06T10:53:53.662-04:002011-07-06T10:53:53.662-04:00Gonat, I think you said it. Successful. I think we...Gonat, I think you said it. Successful. I think we are all in agreement he will help this team in relief and spot starts. Wish he was here early on when Slaten and Burnett were blowing games.<br /><br />As Mark's title suggests One Run Wonders, there is very little marhin for error. <br /><br />Davey is a smart man and will get his way. He needs Detwiler. I am sure Riggleman wanted him and got a standard Rizzo - Request Denied.Mark'dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-33185196238592989462011-07-06T10:53:36.668-04:002011-07-06T10:53:36.668-04:00Ouch--typo. Not 4 wins, but 7 wins. Still seems ...Ouch--typo. Not 4 wins, but 7 wins. Still seems far greater than the numbers themselves.Nats Outsidernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-2784313407691566022011-07-06T10:49:33.644-04:002011-07-06T10:49:33.644-04:00Dave said... A year ago today, the #Nats were 37-4...Dave said... A year ago today, the #Nats were 37-47. <br /><br />Very interesting. It represents a year-to-year difference of just 4 wins out of 87 games (less than 5 percent). Five percent shouldn't *feel* so different, but it does, and it feels very, very good.Nats Outsidernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-61547528740543353252011-07-06T10:31:55.918-04:002011-07-06T10:31:55.918-04:00Another way of putting it: if they win only 1/3 of...Another way of putting it: if they win only 1/3 of the games remaining on the schedule, they match last year's W-L record.Does this make the Nats Progressives?noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3442809928829881676.post-56335931351706272892011-07-06T10:30:41.699-04:002011-07-06T10:30:41.699-04:00HHover said...
As for Detwiler ... yeah. His inab...HHover said... <br />As for Detwiler ... yeah. His inability to go deep into the game has always been the knock on him. I don't know about sending him to XST, but yes, if he's going to make in in the big leagues, it won't be as a starter. <br /><br />July 6, 2011 10:09 AM<br />___________________________________<br /><br />I agree sort of. I think you need to use the word "successful". He could be a starter in the Majors but not a successful starter in the long term.<br /><br />Look at him in Spring Training, he was excellent in 3 inning stints and struck out more batters and also faced a bunch of Minor League types so it was tough to evalutate.<br /><br />In 5 innings yesterday, he did well with a high BABIP and got a lot of ground balls in innings 1 and 2. Then in the 3rd, he almost gave up a HR ball to Reed Johnson which was played well by Bernadina.<br /><br />In the 4th, Ramirez hit that sharp liner to Zim and the next batter Soto singled. That could have been his undoing if Zim didn't make that nifty play at 3rd. Credit to Detwiler on getting Soriano to popup and Byrd to groundout to end the inning.<br /><br />I see a reliever in Detwiler right now. I think he needs another pitch for more swing and miss stuff to be a successful starter in the future. I just don't see anything right now to convince me that he could be a successful starter and I don't think he has the arm stamina. I know he is a popular guy but so was Tyler Clippard when he was with the Yankees as a projected starter. Now look at Clip! An All Star and a very very big part of the Nats success.Gonatnoreply@blogger.com